PERSONAL: 'We have to adapt' - Indonesian farmers prepare for looming El Nino dry spell

Under a hazy morning sky in West Java’s rice heartland, the paddies of Cirebon used to stretch in grids of green and gold. But this planting season, the rhythm of the fields is marked by uncertainty as Indonesia enters a prolonged dry spell linked to El Nino.

Indonesia, where rice is a staple for millions, depends heavily on stable weather patterns to sustain production. In regions like Cirebon, seasonal cycles have long guided planting and harvests. But those rhythms are becoming less predictable as extreme weather patterns intensify.

The arrival of El Nino, which typically brings drier-than-normal conditions to much of the archipelago, is raising concerns that water shortages could disrupt planting at a critical time. For farmers already working with narrow margins, even small shifts in rainfall can mean the difference between a successful harvest and significant losses.

For Teguh Basuki, 51, continuing to plant rice is not a choice but a necessity. A farmer for more than two decades, he says survival depends on adapting — even if that means higher costs and more work.

 “We live from farming, so we have to adapt.”

With irrigation water becoming less reliable, Teguh has turned to groundwater pumps to keep his fields alive. The extra fuel and labour add to his expenses, but leaving land idle, he says, would mean losing his only source of income.

A few villages away, farmer Misti, in his 60s, has chosen a more cautious approach. Facing rising heat and declining water availability, he is reluctant to push for a third planting season, fearing the crop may fail before harvest.

“I don’t dare plant a third crop… I’m afraid there won’t be enough water.”

Instead, he is scaling back expectations — sometimes switching crops or accepting whatever outcome the season brings. “We’re used to it. So we leave it be—whatever happens, we’ll see later.”

Across Cirebon, these contrasting choices reflect a broader tension between necessity and risk.

Data from the Cirebon Agriculture Agency shows pressure is already building. While the region recorded a surplus of more than 90,000 tons of rice in 2025, early figures for 2026 tell a different story.

From January to April, production reached about 89,633 tons, falling short of estimated consumption of 91,724 tons, leaving a deficit of around 2,091 tons.

The shortfall remains modest, but highlights how quickly production can tighten when planting cycles are disrupted or water becomes scarce.

Local agriculture officials say farmers are being encouraged to plant earlier while water is still available, though in some areas limited supply means additional planting is simply not feasible.

 Production: Yuddy Cahya Budiman/Reuters