Climate change worsened wildfire risks in Spain and France

BRUSSELS — Human-caused climate change made the extreme weather conditions fueling wildfires in southwestern France twice as likely and increased the likelihood of fire conditions in central Spain by 20 times, scientists said on Friday.

Ongoing wildfires in Spain and France have forced hundreds of thousands of people to evacuate and burned vast areas of land.

The World Weather Attribution (WWA) group of scientists analyzed historical weather data to determine how “fire-prone” conditions — including extreme heat, dryness, and strong winds that make fires harder to control — have changed over time.

Greenhouse gas emissions, largely from burning coal, oil, and gas, have raised the planet’s average temperature to about 1.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

The analysis found that in today’s warmer climate, extreme fire conditions of this intensity are expected to occur about once every 20 years in southwestern France and once every six years in central Spain.

“We’ve seen repeatedly how climate change increases hot, dry, flammable conditions that are extremely conducive to wildfires,” said Clair Barnes, a research associate in extreme weather at Imperial College London and a co-author of the WWA analysis.

“What’s unique about this case is that it’s still early in the season — and with another heatwave looming, these findings are extremely scary,” Barnes added.

Scientists said a growing factor behind Europe’s wildfire risk is the pattern of a wet winter followed by a dry spring and summer. Heavy winter rainfall encourages vegetation growth, while prolonged dry conditions later in the year turn that vegetation into highly flammable fuel.

The WWA analysis said reducing wildfire risks requires more than emergency firefighting efforts. It also requires stronger prevention measures, including risk-sensitive land planning and forest management, such as removing dried vegetation before the wildfire season begins.

Spain recorded its wettest January in 25 years this year, followed by a summer that the country’s meteorological agency described as the hottest on record. France is also experiencing its fourth heatwave of the year.

Recent scientific studies have further confirmed that human-caused climate change has increased the likelihood of Europe’s recent hot and dry conditions.

-Reporting by Kate Abnett; Editing by Aurora Elli/Reuters