Indicative oil price for Russian energy tax calculation falls to 79-month low

The indicative price of oil used by the Russian government to calculate taxes paid by energy companies fell last month to its lowest since May 2020, signalling shrinking state energy revenue, government data showed on Tuesday.

State energy revenue, mostly from the mineral extraction tax calculated using the monthly average indicative price set by the government, fell by 22% from January to November 2025 and is on course to be the lowest since 2020 for the full year.

The economy ministry said that the indicative price for December 2025 taxes will be about $39 a barrel, down from $45 in November. The indicative price is based on the market prices for Russia's Urals and the more expensive ESPO blends.

Russian oil is traded at a discount internationally because of Western sanctions. The average indicative price fell to $55.60 a barrel in 2025, from $67.90 in 2024, below the $58 planned in the budget.

The government drafted the 2026 budget assuming the average indicative price at $59 a barrel. The average indicative price for December 2025 will be used to calculate taxes paid in January 2026.

-Darya Korsunskaya/Reuters