Venezuela's default-stricken government bonds surge after US capture of Maduro

LONDON – Venezuela’s default-stricken government bonds surged on Monday following the surprise capture of President Nicolas Maduro by U.S. authorities.

Maduro’s detainment and removal to the U.S. on Saturday, following a military raid in Caracas, has raised expectations of one of the largest—and potentially most complex—sovereign debt restructurings in history.

Bonds issued by the Venezuelan government and state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA) jumped as much as 8 cents on the dollar (US922646BL74=TE), or roughly 20%, in early European trading, with analysts predicting further gains.

“Venezuela and PDVSA bonds have roughly doubled in price over the course of 2025, but should still see a strong bounce—up to 10 points—at the start of Monday’s session,” JPMorgan analysts said in a client note.

Venezuela’s sovereign bonds, which went into default in 2017, were the best-performing in the world last year, nearly doubling in price as U.S. President Donald Trump increased military pressure on Maduro.

Monday’s moves pushed Venezuela’s 2031 bond (USP17625AD98=TE) to almost 40 cents on the dollar, Tradeweb data showed. Most of the country’s other bonds traded between 35 and 38 cents, while PDVSA debt (US716558AF83=TE) rose over 6 cents to nearly 30 cents.

Venezuela’s government and PDVSA have defaulted on bonds with a face value of roughly $60 billion. Total external debt—including other PDVSA obligations, bilateral loans, and arbitration awards—is estimated at $150 billion to $170 billion, depending on accrued interest and court judgments, according to analysts.

-Reporting by Marc Jones and Karin Strohecker; Editing by Alison Williams/Reuters