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Goldman Sachs pushes back Fed rate cut forecast amid Mideast conflict

Goldman Sachs now expects U.S. Fed rate cuts in September and December instead of June, citing higher inflation risks from the Middle East conflict, though earlier reductions could happen if the labor market weakens.

March 12, 2026

Joel Jose/Reuters

Goldman Sachs pushes back Fed rate cut forecast amid Mideast conflict

FILE PHOTO: Goldman Sachs logo appears in this illustration created on December 1, 2025.

Dado Ruvic/Illustration/Reuters

Goldman Sachs has delayed its forecast for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, and now expects quarter-point reductions in September and December, citing rising inflation risks linked to the Middle East conflict.


The U.S. bank had earlier projected rate cuts beginning in June, followed by another reduction in September.


"A June start now looks too early under our higher revised inflation forecast", Goldman said in a note on Wednesday, adding that earlier cuts are still possible if the labor market weakens sooner and more substantially than expected.

-Joel Jose/Reuters

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