SOCCER: Study warns of dangerous heat at 2026 World Cup as climate risks grow

LONDON - Football’s global players’ union FIFPRO raised renewed concerns on Thursday over heat conditions at the 2026 World Cup, after scientists warned that the likelihood of dangerous temperatures for players and fans has increased sharply.

An analysis by climate research group World Weather Attribution found that roughly a quarter of the 104 matches across the United States, Mexico and Canada are likely to be played in conditions exceeding safety thresholds recommended by FIFPRO. The report said this risk is almost twice as high as during the 1994 World Cup in the United States.

The researchers also estimated that around five matches could take place in conditions considered unsafe, where postponement would be advised.

The analysis used kickoff times and the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index, which measures how effectively the human body can cool itself in heat and humidity.

FIFPRO medical director Vincent Gouttebarge said the findings align with the union’s earlier projections. “These estimations are in line with our calculations published in 2023,” he said.

He added that the results support the need for stronger safeguards. “They justify the need for mitigation strategies to better protect players’ health and performance,” he said.

FIFPRO recommends cooling measures when WBGT exceeds 26 degrees Celsius and advises postponement when it rises above 28C, equivalent to about 38C in dry heat or 30C in high humidity.

World football governing body FIFA said it has developed heat-risk planning measures for the tournament. These include hydration breaks, cooling infrastructure, adapted work-rest schedules, and enhanced medical protocols that adjust to real-time conditions.

“FIFA is committed to protecting the health and safety of all participants,” the organization said in a statement.

Chris Mullington, consultant anaesthetist at Imperial College London NHS Trust and clinical senior lecturer at Imperial College London, said extreme heat is more likely to affect performance than cause widespread medical emergencies.

“It will be more of a performance issue than a health issue,” he said. “Players will self-pace, and that is difficult to override.”

He added that this could lead to more cautious styles of play. “You may end up with more conservative football,” he said.

The analysis found that cooling systems are expected to reduce some risk at three of the 16 host venues. However, more than one-third of matches with at least a 10% chance of exceeding 26C WBGT are scheduled at stadiums without air conditioning, including venues in Miami, Kansas City, New York, and Philadelphia.

That includes the final at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, which faces about a one-in-eight chance of exceeding the 26C threshold and a small but notable risk of reaching more dangerous levels.

Friederike Otto, professor of climate science at Imperial College London, said the findings highlight the need to reconsider scheduling for future tournaments in hotter regions.

“From a health point of view, it would be advisable to hold these tournaments earlier or later in the year,” she said.

FIFPRO also warned that even where stadiums are air-conditioned, fans attending matches and outdoor fan events could still face prolonged exposure to dangerous heat conditions. -Reporting by Iain Axon in London, writing by Lori Ewing in Manchester;Editing by Toby Davis/Reuters