Majority of Russians expect Ukraine war to end in 2026, state pollster says

MOSCOW - A majority of Russians expect the war in Ukraine to end in 2026, state pollster VTsIOM said on Wednesday, in a sign that the Kremlin could be testing public reaction to a possible peace settlement as diplomatic efforts to end the conflict intensify.

During the pollster's year-end presentation, VTsIOM Deputy Head Mikhail Mamonov said 70% of the 1,600 respondents saw 2026 as a more "successful" year for Russia than this year, while for 55% that hope was linked to a possible end to what Russia calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine.

"The main reason for optimism is the possible completion of the special military operation and the achievement of the stated objectives, in line with the national interests outlined by the president," Mamonov said at the presentation.

In its previous year-end polls, VTsIOM emphasised the consolidation of Russian society around President Vladimir Putin and his military goals in Ukraine but gave no figures for the share of the population expecting the war to end.

HARD TO ASSESS REAL DEGREE OF PUBLIC FATIGUE WITH CONFLICT

The Ukraine war, which started in February 2022, is nearing its fifth year, but the real level of Russian public fatigue with the conflict is difficult to measure due to strict state controls on dissent.

Mamonov cited the Russian army's ongoing offensive in Ukraine, U.S. reluctance to finance Ukraine and the European Union's inability to fully replace the United States financially and militarily as the main factors behind the prospects for an eventual peace agreement.

After the end of military hostilities, he added, the reintegration of veterans of the "special military operation" into society and the reconstruction of Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine, as well as Russian border regions, are seen as the main priorities.

Some two thirds of Russians support peace talks, the highest share since the start of the war, according to independent pollster Levada, which has been branded a "foreign agent" under Russian law during the conflict.

The Kremlin said on Wednesday that Putin has been briefed about his officials' contacts with President Donald Trump's envoys on U.S. proposals for a possible Ukrainian peace deal and that Moscow would now formulate its position.

Putin has said in recent weeks that his conditions for peace are that Ukraine should cede the roughly 5,000 square km of Donbas that it still controls and that Kyiv should officially renounce its intention to join the NATO military alliance.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on December 22 that negotiations conducted with the United States and European nations aimed at ending the war with Russia were "very close to a real result".

On Wednesday, Zelenskiy called for a meeting with Trump to hammer out the most sensitive issues in a future peace deal, including control of territory.

Gleb Bryanski/Reuters