Iran and Ukraine loom over G7 as France accommodates Trump

PARIS — Wars in the Middle East and Ukraine are expected to dominate next week’s Group of Seven (G7) summit, as host France seeks to project unity while avoiding open confrontation with U.S. President Donald Trump.

The June 15–17 gathering in Evian-les-Bains, on the shores of Lake Geneva, will bring together leaders from France, the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United States, along with representatives of the European Union.

With Trump struggling to end a conflict that has disrupted the global economy, and expressing frustration toward European allies he believes have not fully supported U.S. efforts in the Gulf or have become overly dependent on American security guarantees, diplomats say crisis management is likely to dominate discussions.

No major breakthrough decisions are expected on key issues, which also include global economic imbalances and efforts to secure critical minerals outside of China.

The G7, founded more than 50 years ago, has traditionally served as a forum for addressing major economic and geopolitical challenges through consensus. However, that unity has weakened since Trump returned to the White House in 2025.

French officials have adjusted expectations for the summit, with some diplomats suggesting success may simply mean that Trump remains for the full duration of the event, after leaving early during the 2025 gathering. The agenda has also been shaped to align with Trump’s priorities in an effort to avoid friction.

“Macron has gone out of his way to have an agenda that is designed to appeal to the sort of things President Trump wants,” said Josh Lipsky, chair of international economics at the Atlantic Council.

Trump’s stance may hinge on Iran

Developments in the Middle East are expected to influence the summit’s tone. A fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran remains under pressure, and efforts to reach a temporary agreement that would delay deeper disputes over Iran’s nuclear program have proven difficult.

Trump has called for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil and gas shipments. Iran, meanwhile, is demanding that the United States lift restrictions on Iranian ports, release frozen assets, and push Israel to halt strikes on the Iran-backed Hezbollah movement in Lebanon.

Diplomats say Trump’s mood at the summit may depend on whether a deal can be reached before leaders arrive. In recent months, he has sharply criticized some NATO allies for what he sees as insufficient support for U.S. operations in the Gulf.

One senior G7 diplomat said a breakthrough agreement could help ease months of tension between Washington and its allies.

France has invited Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar — all affected by the conflict — as well as Egypt, which has played a key mediating role.

Ukraine and Europe’s push for renewed focus

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is also expected to attend.

Talks to end Russia’s war in Ukraine have stalled, and Zelenskiy is seeking renewed momentum, including greater European involvement in shaping any potential settlement.

He is concerned that the Iran crisis has diverted U.S. attention away from Ukraine. On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces have increasingly used drones to strike deeper into Russian territory, targeting supply routes and energy infrastructure.

European officials view the summit as an opportunity to persuade Trump that current U.S. proposals for ending the war are too favorable to Moscow. They also aim to signal a willingness to engage Russia diplomatically while continuing sanctions and military support for Ukraine, arguing that Moscow, not Kyiv, is blocking progress.

“What we are increasingly seeing is Europeans beginning to think about a life with less America,” said Victor Cha of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Economic tensions and China’s role

French officials have scaled back plans for a broad final communiqué, opting instead for narrower joint statements on issues such as critical minerals, migration, and drug trafficking.

Asuka Tatebayashi, senior analyst at Mizuho Bank in Tokyo, noted that Japan has spent more than a decade building stockpiles of critical minerals and preparing for supply chain disruptions.

“It’s one of the few fields that the U.S. actually comes to Japan for advice on,” Tatebayashi said.

She added that the G7 could benefit from coordinated action on critical minerals, including minimum pricing mechanisms, shared reserves, or joint development projects, though significant differences remain among members.

France has used its presidency to push discussion on global macroeconomic imbalances ahead of the United States assuming leadership roles in both the G20 and G7 next year. Paris frames the issue as a shared global challenge, arguing that China overproduces, the United States overconsumes, and Europe underinvests.

Brazil, India, Kenya, and South Korea have been invited to join parts of the discussions. French President Emmanuel Macron has also urged China to increase domestic consumption as part of efforts to rebalance the global economy.

“None of that solves the problem, but the first step is recognizing that you have one,” Lipsky said. “This has been discussed for years, but not collectively within the G7.” -Additional reporting by John Geddie in Tokyo, Giselda Vagnoni in Rome; Editing by Richard Lough/Reuters