Informal poll shows Rebeca Grynspan leading race to be next UN chief

A first informal U.N. Security Council poll on Thursday showed former Costa Rican Vice President Rebeca Grynspan as the early frontrunner to become the next U.N. secretary-general, with former Guyanese Foreign Minister Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett following closely behind.

In the non-binding "straw poll" conducted by the 15 members of the Security Council, Grynspan received 10 "encourage" votes, ahead of Rodrigues-Birkett with nine and Argentina's Rafael Grossi, head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, with seven, diplomats said.

The candidates are competing to succeed Portugal's Antonio Guterres, who will step down at the end of the year after serving two five-year terms.

The next U.N. chief will face the challenge of revitalizing an organization facing declining influence and growing criticism over its size, costs, bureaucracy, and overlapping functions among its agencies.

During the straw polls, which are expected to involve multiple rounds, Security Council members cast secret ballots indicating whether they "encourage," "discourage," or have "no opinion" on each candidate.

Diplomats said Grynspan, an economist born to Jewish parents who fled Europe after surviving the Holocaust, received one "discourage" vote and four "no opinion" responses. Rodrigues-Birkett received two "discourage" votes and four "no opinion" responses, while Grossi received two "discourage" votes and six "no opinion" responses.

In the initial rounds, all Security Council members use identical ballots, allowing diplomats to measure overall support and opposition without revealing whether negative votes came from one of the five permanent members — China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States — whose backing is crucial.

At a later stage, the permanent members will use ballots of a different color to show whether a candidate has received a "discourage" vote from one of them.

Other candidates include former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, former Ecuadorian Foreign Minister Maria Fernanda Espinosa, former Senegalese President Macky Sall, and Ugandan diplomat Olara Otunnu, who joined the race last week.

Bachelet received six "encourage" votes, five "discourage" votes, and four "no opinion" responses. Sall received six "encourage," seven "discourage," and two "no opinion" responses. Espinosa received five "encourage," two "discourage," and eight "no opinion" responses, while Otunnu received two "encourage," five "discourage," and eight "no opinion" responses.

U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Mike Waltz told reporters that the voting process was confidential, adding that Washington would allow the process to continue.

"We need a secretary-general that is going to reform this institution, that is going to make it leaner, more fit for purpose, and more relevant on the international stage," Waltz said.

Multiple rounds expected

Two diplomats said the poll was a positive sign for Grynspan, assuming her "discourage" vote did not come from a permanent member of the Security Council. Another diplomat said Rodrigues-Birkett was a surprise contender and could advance if her negative votes did not come from a permanent member.

A third diplomat said the results showed there was "no consensus" yet on a single candidate.

The United Nations has never had a secretary-general who is Jewish or a woman during its 80-year history.

Israel's U.N. Ambassador Danny Danon, who has accused Guterres of anti-Israel bias, said the next secretary-general must ensure that the organization serves all member states equally and address what he described as institutional antisemitism within parts of the U.N. system.

Richard Gowan, a U.N. expert at the International Crisis Group, said the voting results indicated that selecting the next secretary-general "is not going to be quick."

Historical precedent suggests that multiple rounds of polling could continue in the coming weeks, potentially concluding in late September or early October. The process could take longer if no candidate gains broad support.

Additional candidates may still enter the race.

The Security Council will eventually adopt a resolution recommending a candidate for appointment by the 193-member U.N. General Assembly. The recommendation requires at least nine votes in favor and no veto from any of the five permanent members. Approval by the General Assembly has traditionally been considered a formality. -Reporting by David Brunnstrom, Michelle Nichols and Emma Farge; Additional reporting by Olivia Le Poidevin in Geneva and Francois Murphy in Vienna; Editing by Doina Chiacu, Bill Berkrot, Sanjeev Miglani and Stephen Coates/Reuters