EXPLAINER: What is at stake in Italy's referendum on judicial reform?

Italy will hold a constitutional referendum on March 22–23 on a government overhaul of the justice system, which is stoking tensions between the judiciary and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's conservative coalition.

WHAT IS THE AIM OF THE REFORM?

The proposed changes would separate the careers of judges and public prosecutors, ending the current system in which both roles share a single entry exam, operate within the same career track and may switch roles early in their professional life.

Under the reform, prosecutors and judges would follow two distinct career paths from the start, with no possibility of movement between them.

The plan also calls for splitting the High Council of the Judiciary (CSM) into two independent bodies: one for judges and one for prosecutors. Membership selection rules would change, introducing the use of sortition, or lottery.

In addition, the reform creates a new High Disciplinary Court to oversee misconduct cases.

WHAT IS AT STAKE?

Successive governments have discussed separating judicial careers since the late 1980s, but the debate has always been snarled by fierce partisan politics preventing change.

Proponents say the reform will modernise the system and better align Italy with other democracies, such as France and Germany, reinforcing impartiality within the judiciary by cutting ties between judges and prosecutors.

Introducing a method of random selection for members of the new CSM bodies will make it harder for influential factions, often with political affiliations, to gain traction within the judiciary, the government says.

They say the disciplinary court will make it easier to hold prosecutors and judges accountable for any misconduct.

Critics say the reform will weaken judicial independence, making it easier for a government to impose control over prosecutors and decide what investigations they should pursue. They add that choosing members of the CSM by drawing lots risks reducing the quality or motivation of those selected.

WHY DOES THIS NEED TO GO TO A REFERENDUM?

The reform has already been approved by both houses of parliament twice, as is required with constitutional changes. However, a referendum is also needed by law if a two-thirds majority is not achieved in parliament. Meloni's government failed to reach the required two-thirds majority so was forced to submit the measure to voters.

Because it is a so-called confirmatory referendum it does not require any sort of quorum. A "Yes" vote would enact the changes; a "No" vote would leave the current system in place.

WHO DO THE POLLS SAY WILL WIN?

The 'Yes' camp was leading the field up until last year, but a recent poll by Corriere della Sera newspaper showed the two sides were neck-and-neck, with the turnout seen as crucial.

A high abstention rate is likely to help opponents of the reform. This is a concern for Meloni because centre-right voters have traditionally been less motivated to vote in referendums.

The centre-left is additionally motivated, seeing the ballot as an opportunity to weaken Meloni ahead of a parliamentary election set for 2027.

-Reporting by Crispian Balmer;Editing by Gareth Jones/Reuters