Despite Israeli firepower, Prime Minister struggles for political gains in Iran war

The Iran war was meant to deliver a defining victory over Tehran that would secure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's place in history. More than six weeks into the conflict, he has been unable to translate military might into political gain.

Despite Israel's overwhelming firepower, its enemies across every front have been weakened but not neutralised. Even after heavy Israeli-U.S. airstrikes and the loss of senior leaders, Iran remains intact and defiant.

Tehran's nuclear stockpiles endure, its missile capability is now proven and it holds sway over the Strait of Hormuz, the artery for a fifth of global oil flows.

Palestinian Islamist militant group Hamas has not been disarmed or dismantled in Gaza, and Iran-backed Hezbollah continues to fire rockets at northern Israel from Lebanon.

Netanyahu, 76, is paying a political price for a military campaign launched with U.S. President Donald Trump that has failed to deliver a decisive outcome, political analysts in the region say.

Netanyahu's approval ratings have slipped and, with legislative elections due by late October, the political risks he faces are rising.

Netanyahu's office did not respond to a Reuters request for comment for this article. The prime minister has criticized those who he said were diminishing Israel's achievements in Iran, saying Israel has emerged stronger and Iran weaker.

At the start of the war, Netanyahu told Iranians they would be "called upon to take to the streets" and topple their clerical rulers. Security officials have since grown increasingly sceptical such an outcome will materialise any time soon, a senior Israeli military official said.

In the early stages of the Iran war, his hardline posture towards Hamas and Hezbollah resonated with parts of the Israeli public, but polls show his ratings have slipped since then.

An April 11 survey by Hebrew University's Agam Labs found only 10% of Israelis viewed the war as successful, while support for Netanyahu was at 34%, down from 40% at the start of the war. More than half rated his leadership as poor or very poor.

Political analysts in the region say that although the military campaign built almost entirely on airpower has been tactically impressive and produced operational gains, it has not compounded into a coherent and durable strategic endgame.

Israeli officials and a Western source said Netanyahu had been informed of a ceasefire plan that was agreed last week only when it was in its final stages. The Western source said Netanyahu had been angered by being left out of the process.

The prime minister has sought since then to counter any perception that he was sidelined in the Pakistan-brokered talks, and on Tuesday issued a statement saying U.S. Vice President JD Vance had called him from his plane to brief him on the talks.

Netanyahu has also launched a campaign to convince voters the war has been worth the cost.

The war effort has run up about $11.5 billion in budgetary costs, with a large share spent on defence, Israel's finance ministry said on Sunday.

Netanyahu’s dilemma, diplomats in the region say, is likely to deepen in the absence of decisive military victories, with security problems remaining for Israel in Gaza and the Israel-occupied West Bank, and the conflict with Lebanon continuing.

Israel has said it would accept a deal that curbs Iran’s missile and nuclear program and removes enriched uranium.

The war has crossed a critical threshold for Washington, experts on Iran say, with Iran realizing it can survive a conflict with the U.S. and threaten its enemy by attacking Gulf infrastructure and controlling the Strait of Hormuz.

Production: Dedi Hayun, Rami Amichay, Roleen Tafakji, Andreea Popescu/Reuters