Baste Duterte, Leni Robredo, and Robin Padilla lead Senate preference survey in three-way tie

A recent Senate election preference survey conducted by Arkipelago Analytics shows a tight race at the top, with Baste Duterte, Leni Robredo, and Robin Padilla sharing the lead. Each of the three candidates received 48 percent voter preference, placing them in a three-way tie for first to third place.

Following closely behind are Vico Sotto and Loren Legarda, who both recorded 45 percent voter preference and ranked fourth to fifth. Raffy Tulfo and Alan Peter Cayetano followed with 42 percent each, placing them in sixth to seventh place.

Rounding out the top ten are Pulong Duterte, Francis Escudero, and Mark Villar, each registering 39 percent voter preference. Jose Sixto Gonzales III “Dingdong” Dantes and Grace Poe completed the current top twelve, both receiving 35 percent voter preference.

The survey also shows several candidates within striking distance of the winning circle. Jinggoy Estrada, Ben Bitag Tulfo, Nancy Binay, Joy Belmonte, and Jose Marie Borja Viceral, popularly known as Vice Ganda, each posted 33 percent, placing them in a five-way tie for thirteenth to seventeenth place. Jimmy Bondoc, Juan Edgardo “Sonny” Angara, and Manny Pacquiao followed with 30 percent each, ranking eighteenth to twentieth.

Other candidates continued to register measurable support among voters. Rex Gatchalian and JV Ejercito both received 28 percent, while Rowena Guanzon, Mike Defensor, and Bong Revilla each posted 27 percent. Vince Dizon and Ralph Recto followed with 24 percent each, while Benhur Abalos, Franklin Drilon, and Mar Roxas each received 21 percent.

Further down the list, Gringo Honasan, Francis Tolentino, and Heidi Mendoza each registered 19 percent voter preference, ranking thirty-first to thirty-third. Philip Salvador, Willie Revillame, and Bonifacio Bosita followed with 14 percent each.

Chel Diokno and Doc Marites Mata each received 8 percent voter preference, while Vic Rodriguez and Antonio Trillanes posted 7 percent each. Teddy Casiño and Ka Leody de Guzman followed with 5 percent each. Apollo Quiboloy, Teacher France Castro, and Martin Romualdez rounded out the list of candidates included in the survey, each registering 4 percent voter preference.

The survey was implemented from May 26 to June 2, 2026, through face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of 2,637 adults aged 18 years and above. The sampling design employed regional stratification across all 18 regions and further classification by urban and rural clusters.

The national estimates carry a ±2 percent margin of error at a 96 percent confidence level, while subnational estimates for each geographic area carry a ±5 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level.

Atty. Anna Mae Lamentillo is the founding partner for Lamentillo Law (https://www.lamentillolaw.com), a Philippine law firm committed to defending rights, strengthening democratic institutions, and helping build fair, inclusive, and livable cities."