Where oil prices go next hinges on the Strait of Hormuz, analyst says

Brent crude climbed back up past $100 a barrel on Friday (March 13) as markets are on edge for developments around the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane for global crude exports, located amid escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Bob Yawger, executive director and commodities specialist at Mizuho Futures Group, told Reuters in an interview on Friday that the outlook for prices corresponds to whether oil continues to move through the strait.

"It's all about (the) Strait of Hormuz," Yawger said, describing the waterway as critical to global supply “It’s a big piece. It’s irreplaceable.” He said Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates can reroute some crude through pipelines, but that a large volume of exports would still be shut in if traffic through the strait is disrupted.

Higher crude prices are filtering through to consumers, and Yawger said higher gasoline prices could quickly add political pressure as the summer driving season approaches and demand picks up.

"We're closer to $4 now than we are to $3. And we started at $2,” he said, referring to price per gallon.

Brent futures for May LCOc1 were up $1.37, or 1.36%, to $101.83 a barrel at 10:55 a.m. CDT (1555 GMT) Friday, heading for a weekly increase. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April CLc1 gained 53 cents, or 0.55%, to $96.26 a barrel, and was set for an uptick on the week.

The U.S. issued a 30-day license for countries to buy Russian oil and petroleum products stranded at sea. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it was a step to stabilize global energy markets roiled by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

The announcement on Russian oil came a day after the U.S. Energy Department said Washington would release 172 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help curb skyrocketing oil prices.

The market's next move may depend on whether tensions ease or whether more oil infrastructure and shipping routes are hit. Yawger said prices have not yet reached the extremes seen during past major oil shocks, but warned the conditions are in place for another sharp run higher if the conflict worsens.

Goldman Sachs ​predicted on Friday that Brent oil would average more than $100 a barrel ‌in March and $85 in April, as energy prices remain volatile due to the Iran war, damage ​to Middle East energy infrastructure and disruptions in ​the Strait of Hormuz.

Production: Andrew Hofstetter, Christine Kiernan/Reuters