Ukraine sees corn area stable, fertilizer shock may hit 2027

A sharp rise in fertiliser prices is unlikely to prompt big changes in Ukraine's crop-planting plans this year, but could push farmers to cut back on fertiliser-intensive corn in 2027, a senior official said on Thursday.

The war in Iran has lifted gas and oil prices, driving up the cost of fertilisers made from them.

Ukraine is a major global corn exporter, but its yields rely heavily on fertiliser use.

"Any potential impact on (corn) acreage would likely begin no earlier than 2027," deputy economy minister Taras Vysotskiy told Reuters.

"This year, it is unlikely - everything has already been prepared (for sowing)."

Ukraine has not yet begun sowing corn or soybeans, which could replace corn, though farmers are planting spring barley and wheat.

Before the conflict in Iran, the economy ministry expected farmers to keep corn acreage near 4.4 million hectares in 2026.

The ministry has yet to issue its 2026 corn harvest outlook. UAC, Ukraine's main farmers union, said this week it sees the corn crop at 31-32 million metric tons in 2026, versus 31 million tons in 2025.

JUMP IN PRICES

Before Russia's invasion, Ukraine produced much of the fertilizer it used. But rising gas costs, Russian strikes on facilities, and power outages have slashed output, driving up imports.

Ukrainian media reported that fertilizer imports rose nearly 14% in 2025, to 3.3 million tons from 2.9 million tons in 2024.

Kostyantyn Kinzhalov, an analyst at Kyiv-based Barva Invest, told an online traders' meeting that domestic prices for urea - a widely used fertiliser during sowing - had jumped 65% since the start of the year and 43% since late February.

"We are already seeing tighter global supplies and rising prices," he said, adding that many farmers had stocked up before the Iran conflict, limiting the impact on this year's harvest.

"Urea producers in the Black Sea and Mediterranean regions have sold out several weeks in advance, making it extremely difficult to secure supplies during April," he added.

-Reporting by Pavel Polityuk. Editing by Mark Potter/Reuters