Ukraine says alternative grain routes can handle only half of exports

KYIV – Alternative grain export routes from Ukraine are expected to reach the required capacity by the end of August at the earliest, Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi said, warning that the routes would handle only about half of the cargo normally shipped through Black Sea ports disrupted by Russian attacks.

Russia has intensified missile and drone strikes on foreign-flagged civilian vessels in the southern port hub of Odesa, which handles most of Ukraine’s grain exports. Vysotskyi said the attacks threaten exports of more than 30 million metric tons of grain and oilseeds this season unless the situation improves.

Ukraine’s Infrastructure Ministry reported 35 attacks on vessels in ports, 22 attacks on ships at sea, and 67 strikes on port facilities in July alone. By comparison, there were 14 attacks on vessels throughout 2025. The security concerns have prompted shipowners to suspend calls at Odesa-area ports, with no vessels entering for nearly two weeks during the peak of Ukraine’s summer harvest.

Russia has said its strikes target military-related facilities. Moscow has also reported attacks on its own agricultural export infrastructure and commercial vessels in the Black Sea.

Vysotskyi said Ukrainian farmers are already feeling the effects, with grain and oilseed prices falling by an average of 30%. He described the situation as more difficult in some respects than the early months of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

The agriculture minister estimated direct losses to Ukraine’s agricultural sector could reach between $1.5 billion and $3 billion this year. On Tuesday, the Ukrainian government approved adjustments to minimum export prices as an emergency measure to support farmers.

Alternative routes offer limited relief

Ukraine’s main alternatives for grain exports are the Danube River, rail, and road transport, with rail expected to become the primary route.

However, Vysotskyi said severe drought has left the Danube River at historically low water levels, limiting its role until at least October. Although exporters can already use the alternative routes, he said they will not reach a stable operating level until the end of the summer.

Even then, the routes are expected to handle only 50% to 55% of the Black Sea ports’ monthly capacity of about 6 million metric tons. Vysotskyi said they should be viewed as a temporary solution rather than a long-term replacement for maritime exports.

He added that using alternative routes would increase transportation costs by about $45 to $50 per metric ton.

“There is no alternative to the ports of Odesa if Ukraine is to continue to act as a guarantor of food security,” Vysotskyi said.

Concerns over global food prices

Ukraine has accounted for about 6% of global wheat exports and 11% of global corn exports in recent seasons. It is also a major exporter of oilseeds and vegetable oils.

The country exported 34.4 million metric tons of grain during the 2025/26 marketing season, and officials estimate that about 43 million metric tons could be available for export this season.

Vysotskyi warned that continued disruption of Black Sea shipping could push global food prices higher, affecting consumers worldwide, particularly in lower-income countries.

He called on Ukraine’s allies to help strengthen security in the Black Sea, saying a stronger Ukrainian military presence is essential to keeping exports moving while Russian attacks continue.

According to Vysotskyi, even if commercial vessels resumed calling at Ukrainian ports immediately, it would take at least one month for exports to recover to previous levels. -Reporting by Yuliia Dysa; Editing by Daniel Flynn and Tomasz Janowski/Reuters