Ryanair sees jet fuel supply disruption from May if Middle East war continues

Jet fuel supply to Europe could be disrupted from May if the Middle East conflict continues and potentially put 25% of Ryanair's RYA.I supplies at risk through May and June, CEO ​Michael O'Leary told Sky News on Wednesday.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates that around 25% to 30% of Europe's jet fuel demand originates from the Persian Gulf, which it warned puts it among the most exposed regions to the impact on supply from the U.S.-Israeli war.

"If the war finishes and the Straits of Hormuz reopens by the middle or end of April, then there's no risk to supply," O'Leary said.

"If the war continues and the disruption to supply continues, we think there's a reasonable risk that some low level, maybe 10%, 20%, 25% of our supplies might be at risk through May and June."

O'Leary said the Irish airline, Europe's largest by passenger numbers, has not cut any flights because its fuel supply is currently secure but that the risk of "significantly higher" ticket prices remains through May, April, June.

He told Ireland's Business Post newspaper on Sunday that he expected summer airfares to rise by more than 3% year-on-year due to a combination of capacity constraints and higher oil prices for less well hedged competitors.

The budget carrier said in January it had covered about 80% of its jet fuel requirements for the fiscal year to the end of March 2027 based on a crude oil price of $67 per barrel.

-Writing by Padraic Halpin in Dublin; editing by Sarah Young/Reuters