New Zealand says El Niño conditions may intensify between July to September

Earth Sciences New Zealand declared El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific on Thursday, warning impacts on the country's weather are expected to intensify through the coming months.

The agency said there is an 80% likelihood the event will reach or exceed strong intensity during the July-September period, with effects peaking over the 2026-27 summer.

• Rainfall is likely to be near or below normal for the north and east of the South Island and the east of the North Island, with below-normal rainfall most likely for the rest of the North Island.

• The west of the South Island is likely to see above-normal rainfall.

• Air temperatures are equally likely to be near or above average nationwide, though cold snaps and frosts are expected.

• Increasingly windy and variable conditions are anticipated later in winter and into spring as El Niño signals strengthen.

• Two lower-probability risks remain under monitoring: sudden stratospheric warming events, which have become more frequent in recent years, and the remote possibility of an out-of-season tropical cyclone, historically associated only with El Niño years.

-Reporting by Lucy Craymer/Reuters