ANALYSIS: US-Iran deal redraws the Middle East: Iran gains, rivals alarmed

BEIRUT — The U.S.-Iran agreement — the first signed by an American and an Iranian president since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution — is being hailed by its supporters as the “deal of the century.”

But across the Middle East, from Israel to Gulf states and factions in Lebanon, it is being viewed far more critically — as a development that could leave Iran more secure, more legitimate, and ultimately more influential.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the interim agreement on Wednesday, effectively ending a three-month conflict. Trump formalized the deal in Versailles on the sidelines of the G7 summit, a setting widely interpreted as symbolic of a shifting international order in the aftermath of war.

The 14-point agreement extends a ceasefire by 60 days, including in Lebanon, to allow negotiations toward a permanent settlement. It also opens discussions on key issues such as Iran’s nuclear program.

“For Washington and Tehran, this is a grand bargain — the deal of the century, with no turning back,” said Lebanese commentator Sarkis Naoum. “The probability of success outweighs the risk of failure. Iran cannot endure further economic pain under sanctions, and Trump has no incentive to start a new war.”

DEAL SEEN AS A SETBACK FOR ISRAEL

Israeli analyst Danny Citrinowicz described the agreement as a strategic “catastrophe.” What was previously framed as a coordinated U.S.-Israel effort to weaken or potentially topple the Islamic Republic, he argued, has instead resulted in Washington effectively legitimizing Iran.

“We went to topple the regime with U.S. backing and ended with Washington effectively giving legitimacy and strengthening the same regime we wanted to bring down,” said Citrinowicz, a senior Iran researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies.

He said the agreement does not address Israel’s core demands, including limits on Iran’s missile program, its regional proxy networks, or a clear plan to dismantle its nuclear infrastructure. Even Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon, he added, has been constrained by the ceasefire framework shaped at Iran’s insistence.

The political fallout is also significant. The deal weakens Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s narrative on Iran and highlights the limits of Israel’s leverage with a U.S. president widely seen as closely aligned with Israel.

Citrinowicz warned that Iran has gained strategic space while Israel faces growing isolation. “Everything is bad,” he said. “And it’s only going to get worse.”

If implemented, the agreement could secure major gains for Iran: an end to the war, phased sanctions relief, the resumption of oil exports, and the possibility of large-scale reconstruction funding — alongside implicit recognition of its political system.

Washington, however, appears to fall short of its original objectives shared with Israel, including dismantling Iran’s nuclear program and curbing its regional influence. Instead of reshaping Iran’s position, critics say, the deal effectively restores it.

The conflict began on February 28, when U.S. and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iran, including the killing of Iran’s 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials in the early days of the war. The fighting escalated rapidly, killing more than 7,000 people, mostly in Iran and Lebanon, and contributing to rising energy prices and global food security concerns.

IRAN GAINS IN LEBANON

In Lebanon, the agreement appears to tilt the regional balance further toward Iran, reinforcing the influence of Tehran-backed Hezbollah and integrating Lebanon into a broader U.S.-Iran negotiating framework while sidelining direct Lebanon-Israel talks.

The deal binds Lebanon into the 60-day ceasefire, requiring all sides to halt operations across all fronts.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun warned last week that Iran cannot negotiate on Lebanon’s behalf regarding the ceasefire or Israeli withdrawal from southern territory.

However, sources close to Hezbollah argue the opposite — that the U.S.-Iran channel strengthens Lebanon’s position by elevating it into higher-level negotiations. In their view, Tehran and Washington can exert pressure on their respective allies, Hezbollah and Israel, to reach a settlement.

GULF STATES ON EDGE

Concern is particularly strong in Gulf states, where Iranian attacks during the conflict have shaken confidence in long-standing security arrangements. Gulf governments have emerged as some of the war’s main losers, observing developments that have reshaped their security environment while absorbing the fallout.

Regional sources say the agreement is already influencing strategic thinking, weakening confidence in U.S. protection, reinforcing Iran’s role as a long-term regional power, and encouraging a shift toward accommodation rather than confrontation.

However, Iran analyst Alex Vatanka offered a more cautious interpretation, arguing that the agreement reflects the limits of military pressure.

“They tried to take Iran down militarily. They couldn’t. The alternative would have been catastrophic — a wider war could have devastated the Gulf for decades,” said Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

He said the real test lies in implementation, unresolved nuclear negotiations, and regional reactions.

“It’s big, but it’s not the end of it. It’s just the beginning.”

ISRAEL SEEN AS POTENTIAL SPOILER

Some analysts warn that Israel could still disrupt the process, even if it is unlikely to derail a U.S.-led agreement.

“Israel has been isolated, after this war, both in the region and in the world,” said one Iranian official, who requested anonymity.

“Iran got what it wanted… We did not abandon our friends, such as Hezbollah. Rather, we were even prepared to go to the extent of walking away from the table and returning to war because of them,” another official added.

-Additional reporting by Laila Bassam in Beirut and Parisa Hafezi in Tehran; Writing by Samia Nakhoul; Editing by Ros Russell/Reuters