SMFG to boost 10-year JGB holdings if yields rise and stabilize, CEO says

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Japan's second-largest banking group, will begin raising its allocation to long-duration Japanese government bonds if yields rise and settle higher, its CEO said.

"If the 10-year yield rises a bit further and becomes embedded around that level, we'd be at the stage of gradually building out the portfolio with longer durations," Toru Nakashima said in an interview with Reuters last week.

"But it may still take a little while."

His comments indicated that Japanese government debt is becoming more attractive after offering negligible returns during Japan's decades of deflation and the seven years in which the 10-year rate was held near zero as part of the Bank of Japan's "yield-curve control" policy.

The yield on benchmark 10-year Japanese government bonds reached an 18-year high of 1.97% on December 8, fuelled by concerns about Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's debt-funded stimulus package and bets that the BOJ will raise rates at its monetary policy meeting this week.

Since then, the 10-year yield has hovered at just below a 2% threshold.

According to a Reuters poll, a majority of economists expect the BOJ to raise rates this week, with another increase on the cards by next September.

"In historical or global terms, the 2% level is not all that high," Nakashima said. "For the time being I don't think there's reason to be too concerned."

But the Takaichi administration's perceived fiscal largesse - instituting a stimulus package that includes handouts and tax breaks funded by additional borrowing - has pushed borrowing costs up and the value of the yen down since October.

"If the government doesn't maintain fiscal discipline, there's a chance that all of a sudden that 2% passes by 3% and hits 4%," Nakashima said. "We have to be careful of that."

Currently only a fraction of SMFG's banking unit's 10.6 trillion yen ($68.44 billion) in JGB holdings are made up of bonds with durations of 10 years and up.

"Our fundamental position at present is not to take risk on our bond portfolio and stick to extremely short durations," Nakashima said.