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China pledges to control steel output during 2026-2030 period

China will maintain strict controls on crude steel production from 2026 to 2030, banning illegal new capacity as part of efforts to curb carbon emissions and address industry overcapacity. Exports will also face new licensing rules amid global trade tensions over cheap steel.

December 26, 2025

Amy Lv and Ryan Woo

China pledges to control steel output during 2026-2030 period

China to maintain crude steel output limits and block illegal capacity from 2026–2030 amid falling domestic demand and global trade tensions.

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China on Friday said it will continue to regulate crude steel output and prohibit the addition of illegal new capacity from 2026 to 2030.


In 2021, the world's largest steel producer and consumer put an end to growth in crude steel output as part of a plan to limit carbon emissions.


The mandated output control also came as domestic steel consumption was hit by a protracted property market downturn, which left the industry plagued with overcapacity.


In the first 11 months of 2025, China's crude steel output fell 4% from a year earlier, keeping the annual total on track to fall below 1 billion tons, the first time in six years.


"The raw materials industry including steel is currently facing the problem of an insufficient supply-demand balance," said the National Development and Reform Commission, the state planner, in a statement.


"The raw material industry needs to deepen supply-side reform during the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) ... survival of the fittest is promoted," it added.


Since 2023, China's steel exports have been robust, partly offsetting falling demand at home. But they have sparked a protectionist backlash worldwide with trade barriers being enforced by a growing number of countries that say China's cheap products damage local manufacturers.


On December 12, Beijing unveiled a plan to roll out a licensing system from 2026 to regulate exports of some 300 steel-related items.

-Amy Lv and Ryan Woo

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